Have Gas Prices Finally Reached a Tipping Point?
If you haven’t already read The Tipping Point by Malcom Gladwell, I definitely recommend it. The Tipping Point is commonly described as “any point when a gradual change quickens and becomes irreversible”.
Some people are wondering if we have reached this point with sustainable transportation because of high gas prices.
That’s the idea discussed in this recent Wall Street Journal Article.
But I don’t think you need to read the article to see what’s going on. More people that ever are getting on the bus, biking, walking, carpooling, etc. I definitely see this happening in Ann Arbor, where the number of people participating in the Commuter Challenge almost doubled from last year.
I have heard many people remark that they have carpooled, biked, taken the bus, etc. for the first time recently.
So how do you change people’s behavior? I think gas prices can definitely help.
Fuel prices are beginning to impact behavior, but I think we’re still far from a tipping point. When prices reach 6 or 7 dollars a gallon and stay there for a few years, the total stock of personally-owned vehicles will have changed character substantially. Voter pressure will have been sufficiently vocal and long-lasting to force politicians to invest in expanded bus systems in medium-sized communities and rail in large cities. Alternative fuels will have seen demand of sufficient size and duration that they will become real and available.
Change takes time and, in this country, takes widespread pain. I doubt we will ever see here the political will shown in European countries years ago to raise the tax on fossil fuels high enough to actually modify behavior (think $3-4/gallon). We prefer to ship our cash to those who pump, mine, and refine fossil fuels.
I suspect it will be another 3-4 years before things change in a noticable way in the US and that includes Ann Arbor.
Comment by Todd Austin — June 24, 2008 @ 9:28 am